China – The nausea is not subsiding – uncannily stable data.

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For those readers who have been following my blog – you know that I am pessimistic about the future of the global economy going forward.

In fact – my warnings last year – have been of a perfect storm – centering on the U.S. Federal Reserve Funds rate – and the huge global debt load – currently standing at USD152 trillion.

As I have stated previously – all central banks are enjoying the Japanese experience – and are now caught in the Japanese Syndrome of lower rates – higher government and nongovernmental debt – deflation.

The Japanese have experienced this for more than 25 years – but all central banks chose to ignore this fact.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve rate is low – the global debt situation will increase – as borrowed monies are not being spent on productive goods – due to the global trade decline the situation will get worse.

When countries need to stimulate the economy – under the Keynesian policies relied upon – from where can they borrow to increase their debts – at lower rates?

The U.S. and Western economies are not stable – debt laden and now reliant on the negative or low interest rates.

One ‘black swan’ event will cripple all economies – wildfire – contagion – distrust in the powers that control the monies.

CHINA-ECONOMY

In prior articles on China ‘Ad Nauseam’ – I have been at pains to point out – that the central government and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) – are juggling the transition of the Chinese economy – from an export based – to a consumer based economy.

After every debt fueled growth phase throughout history – a recession is inevitable – in China’s case a depression – not dissimilar to the Great Depression in the U.S. – 1930’s style.

Further – the Chinese economic figures advised by their  National Bureau of Statistics – are just plain wrong – manipulated – when compared to energy indicators – and then one has the value of the Yuan – what the PBOC needs is for the Yuan – to be lower than its trading partners – to export deflation and incite inflation internally.

The recent release of Chinese macroeconomic data – had the Q3 2016 – GDP numbers – showing that for a third consecutive quarter the pace of economic expansion was – at 6.7% – in line with the midpoint of the Chinese government’s growth target – so the situation ‘looks’ stable.

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Stable – uncannily so – in fact very skeptical from my point of view – so when one drills down into the data – the Q3 GDP data was assisted by new yuan loans provided by the Chinese banks – which rose to CNY 1220 billion in September of 2016 – compared to the previous month’s lending of CNY 948.7 billion and way above market expectations of CNY 1000 billion.

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This is important in that Year-on-year new yuan loans increased 16.2 percent and outstanding yuan loans went up 13 percent.

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Total social financing – which is a broader credit measure increased to CNY 1.72 trillion.

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Banks Balance Sheet in China averaged 588.61 CNY Billion from 2004 until 2016 – reaching an all time high of 2510 CNY Billion in January of 2016 – and a record low of -32.10 CNY Billion in July of 2005.

Banks Balance Sheet data in China – being reported by the PBOC.

Now Year on Year – the figure equates to debt created of USD4.5 trillion – more than any other country.

Mind you the debt is far higher – let us say double this debt – as these are the official Bank figures – and does not include the secondary finance by consumers and construction companies – which has sustained and added to the real estate bubble.

When one looks at the headline figures – this ‘stability’ is consistent with the PBOC requirements to entice investors and a strengthening economic activity would serve their interests to alleviate concern that the “uncanny stability” in the official GDP data is masking a serious underlying growth deceleration in China.

Growth deceleration – as the increase of debt does little to impact the long range growth – it is short lived – as espoused by Henry Hazlett – see later – and shown by the way of a graph from Goldman Sachs (this graph by the way was from a story in 2015 on an entirely different matter – the results however are the same irrespective of the country).

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One should note that the Chinese debt creation has short term benefits for commodity exporters – in particular it should be noted that Australia’s economy is growing at an annual rate of 3.3% – it is among the highest in the developed world – allowing a continuous 25 years of growth – without a recession.

Exports to China have played a key role in enabling the Australian economy to continue growing – even during the financial crisis in 2008 – when many other countries faltered and are still suffering the aftermath.

Australian Growth has remained robust – despite a slump in commodities prices over the past five years.

One should bear in mind that – should China – whose consolidated Debt/GDP is now at or above 300% – feel it necessary to slow down its debt creation – not just Australia – but the rest of the world will feel the consequences.

The key in China – is not consumer debt – nor the Banks – both can be tolerated by the central bureaucracy and be rolled forward – aided and assisted by a tear-away housing market.

So the debt creation has assisted the GDP – no doubt it is the infrastructure spending – the Silk Road through to Europe – however the future ability of the accumulated losses on Banks balance sheets cannot be allocated to the Government – or rather the consumers – as it will stifle consumer demand – the essence of the path to increase consumer spending as a far greater percentage of GDP.

Debt constrains growth.

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The problem with deferring debt – is the maintenance of that debt on the balance sheet – at a huge cost in interest and charges – which increases exponentially over time – and when one looks at the latest GDP figures – and the 13 percent increase to established loans – one wonders whether this debt was created to cover interest costs.

This debt is a political problem for the ruling party and the PBOC – for the government to take on this debt – it is considered by the writer to be a death knell to the consumer – as the affects will be to stifle demand.

Tough decisions ahead – problem is though globally – the postponement is just creating a bigger headache for global economies – with the value of the USD rising – thereby increasing the debt stockpile all central banks are holding.

So that then leads to the value of the Yuan in relation to the USD – this has declined and will continue to do so – the Chinese have the currency in the International Monetary Fund basket of currencies – they have achieved the status required.

There is no need for the PBOC to support the currency – therefore international perspective is important – this – with the ‘uncannily stable’ GDP figures – are not assisting the Yuan in the short term – the gloss of the skew of quarterly data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics – has no doubt dimmed on further review.

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Do not get me wrong – the current Yuan devaluations are being welcomed by the PBOC – they do not have to manipulate the value down – the market is doing this for them – they do not have to intervene – spend monies in supporting value now that the currency is in the IMF SDR basket of currencies.

The problem is for the main Chinese trading partners – an unwelcome transfer of deflation – requiring a similar currency devaluation by manipulating interest rates.

Time will tell – in the meantime China is no doubt enjoying the mute response from the major trading partners on this subject.

Austria -Am I in Contempt of Court for saying the decision herein – stinks and is a travesty of Justice?

Or am I viewing this in the wrong context?

An Iraqi refugee who raped a ten year old boy at a swimming pool in Austria – December 2nd last year – was initially given a six year jail sentence – his excuse – ‘a sexual emergency’.

An appeal to a higher Austrian court though – had the decision overturned on the grounds that the “Judges say lower court had not established whether attacker thought boy consented to sex” (1)

What precedent does this set?

If any foreigner rapes a ten year old boy or girl – then the same rules apply – this is the Austrian Legal System.

How the hell does a ten year old boy convey the fact that the attack is unwarranted – when he is set upon by a man?

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I think I need counseling – if I was the father – refugee or not – the perpetrator (…insert your own description here – what I think – I cannot put in writing….)

Austrian laws would see me in prison for inciting violence.

  1. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/iraqi-refugee-raped-10-year-old-boy-swimming-pool-vienna-austria-sentence-conviction-overturned-a7377491.html

 

 

 

 

America – in decline but still the entertainment capital of the world.

Clinton campaign schlonged by a little Weiner!

Not to disappoint – we have now a little ‘Weiner’ in America – which will resurrect my hopes anyway of an arrest before the election – on November 8.

The little Weiner – has secure emails on his server… maybe?

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The little Weiner was ‘apparently’ sextexting a minor and being investigated.

And could not resist posting this photograph composite – but as we all know Hillary is a lesbian – Huma (pictured above) is rumored to be her lover – wife of the little Weiner.

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One Comey – Obama appointee in charge of the F.B.I. – is to reopen the closed case against one Hillary Clinton on ’emailgate’ – this is after the twat stated categorically that no charges were to be laid against her – plus – they granted immunity to her staff during that investigation – and destroyed one of the laptops that had precious emails on them.

Needless to say – Donald is not ducking.

At least his odds have shortened a tad – but do not let that get in the way of a brilliant situation developing in America – land of corruption – class warfare – destroyed middle class – totally slipping down that slippery slope to collapse.

Yes America is well and truly in decline – with the tainted President Obama in control and one Hillary Clinton – the assured victor – corrupt as all hell.

Truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

One President Obama – first black President – awarded the Nobel Peace Prize – preaching increased transparency in control – turning out to be tainted by the Democratic henchman Creamer and his own self interest.

If you read this blog then you know my thoughts on this war criminal.

 

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Yes now the Veritas videos prove that elections are rigged – and Obama is stuck deep in the mud on the simple fact Mr Creamer – had more visits to the POTUS (President of the United Stares) – more than the First Lady Michelle?

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In depth sordid details covered through Breibart at this link – yes saves verbiage from me on this matter and everything covered in far more detail.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/10/19/robert-creamer-okeefe-investigation-fame-visited-obamas-whitehouse-340-times/

Plus Mr Creamer is a convicted felon – but then again what is a few million – it is chicken feed in contrast to the billions siphoned off by the Clintons.

Yes it is called ‘pay to play’.

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And mainstream media – as usual they are very tolerant in regard to both Bill and Hillary Clinton’s misdemeanors – ignoring blatant corruption – her lesbian lover – health issues and treason.

Yes treason – anybody – other than Clinton – would be in jail serving life – for the actions committed by Hillary Clinton with her private server and confidential emails.

The question though is – whilst FBI Comey has reopened the closed case – when will he finish the investigation?

2018?

In the meantime the next POTUS – as guaranteed by Soros and Obama – her meltdown after that interview with Matt Lauer.

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So – got your popcorn?

A lot can happen between now and November 8th.

And yes – America is in decline – as so many great empires before.

Huge Debt

Bribery and Corruption

Class Warfare

No Rule of Law

Only one way to go – down.

Obama’s elephant – his signature legacy to the American people.

Obama’s real legacy to the U.S. – Destruction of Middle Income Americans – Taxpayer’s debt – and a deeply flawed Obamacare – free health care.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (better known as Obamacare) was the largest and most comprehensive social legislation introduced to the American public in history.

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The prescriptions – no pun intended but one may need prescription tranquilizers to read the legislation from cover to cover – and covers:- (and yes three cover(s) in a row – do I get that beer Mel?)

* The structure and operations of the health insurance market;
* The administration of public programs – with 165 sections affecting Medicare alone
* Health care delivery reforms plus
* The training and recruitment of the health care workforce.

In other words – how to completely nationalize the healthcare industry – with virtually every major decision in the health care sector of the American economy being made – or constrained -directly – or indirectly – by federal officials.

At the time – having dinner with my parents – the news of Obamacare was reported on the television – to which I made an ‘off-the-cuff remark’ – on the absurd notion that this legislation should have been vetted and costed before becoming legislation.

Well – I never learn – my mum a socialist through and through – verbally beat me down in flames stating that ‘free health care should be for everyone’ – I raised my eyebrows and smiled thinking – ‘where do they get the money for that?’

Never ever speak about religion – politics – or the economy to my family and friends – just get a Blog!

The cost to the American public?

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Good question – I personally doubt that anyone took the time to do the math – consider the consequences – the costings versus the benefits – in the short and long run.

Apparently one – Jonathan Gruber – Professor of Economics at MIT did – and still does – as the architect of this socialistic complex legislation – who stands by the legislation and stated from the outset on Obamacare that “…we lied to the stupid American people to get it passed.”

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One wonders whether Professor Gruber needs to be made aware and accountable – as the upshot of the legislation is that it is a dogs breakfast – and a huge debt burden to the taxpayers.

Then again all the socialistic Democrats should be held accountable – particularly Obama – one Nancy Pelosi – the Democrat house leader of the Congress at that time – as even her words from ‘NBC’s Meet the Press‘ in 2013 are insane:-

“This is never going to be easy,” Nancy Pelosi, the House minority leader, told NBC’s Meet The Press. “What matters is what happens at the kitchen table of the American people and how they will have more affordability, more accessibility, better-quality care, prevention, wellness, a healthier nation.”

Please note that this is after a full three years – after the legislation was passed.

All – as dumb as one another – when it comes to the forward estimated costs – and debt structure.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reports that

“Over the period from 2013 to 2015 – Medicaid spending increased by 32 percent – according to the CBO – it will increase by 9 percent in 2016 – and only then will Medicaid spending growth begin to taper off.”

“…over the coming decade, per-enrollee spending in federal health programs will grow more rapidly than it has in recent years.

 

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Centre for Medicare and Medicaid Services – Office of Actuary data – total spending on health insurance will rise from $7,786 in 2016 to $11,681 in 2024.

Now it is estimated that over the period from 2016 to 2025 – Americans will pay an estimated $832 billion in taxes – including taxes on health insurance plans – drugs – and medical devices – that will be passed on to the middle class.

So much for ‘free’ healthcare – nothing is free!

Congress is very aware of the problems – they had recently enacted delays in both the health insurance tax – and the 2.3 percent excise tax on medical devices – for a two year period only – so in effect postponing tax increases from 2018 to 2020.

President Barack Obama’s and his “signature” accomplishment – is the elephant in the room – deeply flawed and expensive – destructive to middle income Americans – and a burden for businesses.

In essence:-

* Increased costs for individuals, families, and businesses;
* Resumption of excessive health care spending and middle-class taxation plus
* An endless series of managerial failures or unanticipated consequences.

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And whilst on the more current topic – Trump is right – the legislation should be repealed – but one President Obama keeps on knocking back the solution – he is of the opinion taxes should be increased to cover costs – to support the bloated administration – bloated government – a major headache in 2017 for the next President and those to come. To 

Socialism actually fails when the money runs out – with Obamacare the money will run out quicker than anyone realizes – the end result will be bankruptcy.

 

 

References
https://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Research/ActuarialStudies/downloads/PPACA_2010-04-22.pdf
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/111th-congress-2009-2010/reports/11-30-premiums.pdf
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/50252-Effects_of_ACA_Repeal.pdf
https://www.healthpocket.com/

MIT Professor Behind Obamacare Calls Trump’s Policies a ‘Garbage Salad’

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2014/11/10/obamacare-architect-yeah-we-lied-to-the-stupid-american-people-n1916605

Tick another war crime to Obama

Please remember who received the Nobel Peace Prize.

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Image courtesy of TheIntercept.

Please note that the following report is toned down by Associated Press. Whilst it states ‘backed by the United States – the facts will show that the U.S. had a far greater involvement – including drones in the area.

From Associated Press:

“The Saudi-led coalition, which is backed by the United States, has been targeting Houthi leaders since March 2015 when it intervened in Yemen’s civil war in support of the internationally recognised government.”

“UN experts investigating the double bombing of a packed funeral hall in the rebel-held Yemeni capital are accusing the Saudi-led coalition of violating international humanitarian law by attacking civilians, the wounded and medical personnel.”

 

Not the first time – will not be the last.

Amazed that they do not blame this on Russia – Hollande? Johnson? Obama? Merkel? – why silence?

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Bill Clinton – no where to hide…

I  give thanks to Anonymous – the tit-for-tat revelations just keep on coming.

How is the popcorn going?

 

 

Now one Obama stated that Trump should stop his whining….

This from the victor of the last presidential election – who cannot hide the fact that he is involved up to his eyeballs – with those that have proven to be corrupt.

Now his legacy to the next President – trillions of dollars worth of debt through Obamacare – if it was anyone – with any sense at all – running for the President of the United States – would definitely highlight the economic failures of the Obama era.

Lay the blame now – as this debt will definitely blow up in 2017.

More on that in the next post.

Note: Propaganda by the mainstream press is amazing  – the majority of TWATs are being brainwashed – and this applies to all countries – Australia included.

A Prime Minister involved with suspect transactions in his past – being bailed out by Goldman Sachs – and the Opposition Leader – well what can one say – rape? – involved with corrupt practices in the Unions.

No mainstream media outlet highlights this shit – amazed.

Cry me a river… 

 

 

Do you want to know a secret?

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Something is afoot with one Julian Assange from Wikileaks.

The recent data dump (yesterday’s release) was captioned 1984 – very Orwellian…. Ecuador appears to have been threatened by the U.S. – this is after the mass email drop exposing Hillary Clinton and her associates.

All is not well – in the meantime the email dump has rained on Clinton’s parade.

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No doubt we will find out in due course…

 

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