Ouch – that has to hurt – India

India posted a 25 percent reduction in exports for the last quarter.


Chart courtesy of Reuters. Click to emblazon.


From Reuters:

“Policy makers were nonetheless relieved, because the trade deficit narrowed to $10.48 billion last month from $12.5 billion in August as gold and oil imports declined.

For April-September, the trade deficit shrank to $85.36 billion from 497.17 billion a year earlier, the data showed.”

No – technically I would not be relieved – I would be very worried.

Indian Reserve Bank knew these figures in advance and therefore explains the 0.5 percent RBI interest rate cut.

Therefore the ‘excuse’ given by the RBI on forward GDP 2017 estimates was total bullshit.

Then again – who trusts what any Central Bank / Government says.

Global trade is going down the gurgler – and me personally – think that India overall is in better shape than the majority of the BRIC’s.

Brazil – all commodities impacted bottom line, not assisted by corruption within. Personally feelings is that the government is in a panic – economic distress has erupted into social chaos and calls for President impeachment. It will not end well. Fitch has re-rated Brazil to -BBB – a ranking just above ‘junk’.

Russia – whilst income in USD the Rouble over-valued in light of the current oil price and the continuing decline in the oil and gas price. Geo-political tensions starting to increase – with Turkey and whether this will impact on Gazprom (gas pipeline) – plus the costs of becoming involved in a war in Syria and then Iraq will bear heavily on the Government finances – and not to forget Ukraine – which will default on monies lent by Russia and Gazprom.

India – well what can I say other than this Country will survive in far better shape than the other BRIC countries – for the simple reason of being a purely capitalist economy – with no costly social net. The Prime Minister though should be plainly aware that it is best to avoid religious conflict – which the hardliners are promoting.

China – personally a hard fall anticipated from moi’ – this is simply due to the burden of domestic debt. That said social tensions increasing and the Government has a big problem if this gets out of hand. Strength in the USD will continue with continued devaluation of the Yuan on the cards.

Knock on effect from BRIC’s data and their collective exposure to a strengthening USD – should be a ‘neon sign’ to all countries that this commodity decline is far from over – more trouble ahead.


And no – no one is listening and they are clueless as to what to do next – too much debt by all Governments and Companies and people.

Central Bankers will be banging their heads on a brick wall.



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