China – Do you really believe their growth figures?

I stated on the prior post that the latest China GDP – that export data does not correlate with energy usage.

Power production growth in Q2 was barely positive at 0.5 percent year on year and industrial profit growth was down by 0.8 percent for the period Jan – May.

So – what happened in May to support the 7 percent growth?



Chart courtesy of Datastream.

Bloomberg covers the fact that nominal GDP.

“When GDP is unadjusted for price changes — known as nominal GDP — growth is running 2 percentage points weaker than last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. On a real basis, or when inflation is factored in, the picture looks much better with GDP a mere half a point behind last’s year’s pace.”

I have a lot of data stored on my iPad and this causes a headache – so as we are talking about China’s little miracle on GDP I will post this gem on India and allow me to clear some cache.

“Terming India’s recently revised gross domestic product (GDP) growth data as “puzzling” and prima facie one with “discrepancies”, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said it will send a team of its statistics experts to New Delhi this week to better understand the new methodology of calculation and ensure the data is error-free.
The IMF will also be looking to obtain more ‘back-casted’ historical data in addition to ‘forecasted’ data on the basis of the new methodology used by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) so that it can find out India’s potential output and thereby forecast the country’s medium-term growth rate.


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