Bank Economists have their heads firmly up their arse….

Economists have no friggin idea

Received a DBS newsletter trumpeting the fact that Japan’s March quarter GDP beat expectations, on the back of strong exports. However, export growth may slow in the coming quarters, and domestic demand remains weak.

Maybe, just maybe people decided to buy before the sales tax hike becomes law….can guarantee that with a depreciating Yen the GDP has to increase. If these figures were adjusted to the Yen/USD level before Abe and BoJ started their current round of deflationary QE then the story would be quite different.

Japan ain’t going anywhere fast. Easy to see 120 Yen to USD in short term and maybe 200 Yen to USD when the bond markets collapse after September. Slow process going downhill but suspect that a lot of currencies will be following suite.

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